Here it, the last one before the actual draft. Of course, there will be a million trade. This mock assumes there might be certain trades, but leaves the order in tact. Enjoy, and write if you think we're prescient or stupider than a bag of rocks.
1. St Louis Rams — Sam Bradford — QB — Oklahoma
Everybody's consensus pick, just not the right one. Not that Bradford won't succeed—it's just the odds are he won't. Don't believe me: the successes vs. failures ratio for first round picks is at 2:1 A boy named Suh—I can't spell his real name—was unblockable at times, and could slip right into Spagnuolo's d-Line and create havoc for opposing teams. They could trade up and get their QB in Colt McCoy in the late first round. But they won't.
2. Detroit Lions— Ndamukong Suh — DT — Nebraska
Jim Schwartz gets a new toy. The best defensive tackle in the draft. And boy did he need it. They really need an OT, but could possibly trade up to the end of the 1st round and pick up one there. I would.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Gerald McCoy — DT — Oklahoma
No-brainer. The Bucs ground defense was poopy last year. McCoy—no relation to Colt—fits well into their defensive scheme and stop the bleeding a little.
4. Washington Redskins — Trent Williams — OT — Oklahoma
4th Big 12 kid in a row. Most of the "experts" recently realized that if Mike Shanahan wants to run his zone blocking scheme, he should get the most athletic LT in the draft. Shanahan might want his own QB to draft, but I believe he might try to pick up Dan LeFevour later in the draft and groom him behind McNabb for a few years.
5. Kansas City Chiefs — Russell Okung — OT — Oklahoma State
5th Big 12-er in a row. This picks makes too much sense not to happen. Although, last year, Scott Pioli showed he will take a guy he wants regardless of where he is ranked—don't be surprised if he takes Dan Williams, the consensus nose tackle in the draft. Just a hunch.
6. Seattle Seahawks — Bryan Buluga — OT — Iowa
There has been a lot of talk about putting C.J. Spiller here. I just don't see it. Spiller is more of a home run hitting scat back type; in the mold of Leon Washington, or what everyone (except me) thought Reggie Bush would be. He's not a feature back. Seattle desperately needs a LT to replace Walter Jones and keep Matt Hasselback alive. Buluga is the best choice. That said, Seattle may take Spiller here, and trade down later to take Charles Brown from USC, someone Pete Carroll is familiar with.
7. Cleveland Browns — Jimmy Clausen — QB — Notre Dame
Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Brett Ratliff. Those are the QB's on the Browns roster. No way Mike Holgren, a QB groomer goes into the season with those guys. Unless Holgren has fallen in love with a lower-grade prospect—Colt McCoy comes to mind as someone he may like—Clausen should be his man—he's the most ready to step in from day 1 and start. Like the Chiefs, don't be shocked if the Browns take Dam Williams, the best NT in the draft and someone who can help the 28th ranked rushing defense.
8. Oakland Raiders — Bruce Campbell — OT — Maryland
Ahhhh, Al Davis. Can't knock the guy; he makes the draft fun. The smart pick would be Eric Berry, the consensus best player in the draft. OR trade down and pick up Campbell later in the first round and get more picks. But Al is Al. He falls in love with workout warriors and Campbell is just that, a physical specimen. And to his credit, Al knows his OT situation is a 5-car pileup. But Campbell at 8? Al must love guys from Maryland. Oh thank you for being you, Al.
9. Buffalo Bills — Derrick Morgan — DE — Georgia Tech
Poor Buffalo. This draft could not have turned out worse for them. They needed one of the top OT's or a QB. With all of them off the board, and no need for a free safety—thanks to last year's pick Jarius Byrd—look for Buffalo to trade down here and get more picks. If not, their sack artist, Aaron Schobel has been grumbling about retiring and Aaron Maybin, last year's 1st round pick accomplishing absolute bupkis, the Bills draft their DE of the future. But seriously, look for a trade down here.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars — Eric Berry — FS — Tennessee
Reggie Nelson, a former first round pick, has not panned out the way the Jaguars would have liked, at FS. 0 interceptions does not make Jack Del Rio a happy man. With Aaron Kampman on board to provide the pass rush, the Jags could slide Nelson over to strong safety, and have Berry, a NFL-ready player, cover the FS spot.
11. Denver Broncos — Ronaldo McClain — ILB — Alabama
The Broncos rush defense was 26th last season. In two of their last three games, they gave up 317 and 241 yards on the ground....to the Chiefs and Raiders. The defense needs a stopper in the middle, and McClain is the best. The offense needs a replacement for the departed Brandon Marshall, so Dez Bryant is a possibility although this is a bit early for him. And with more teams running the 3-4 and Jamal Williams a year away from collecting Social Security, Dan Williams could be brought in as a replacement.
12. Miami Dolphins — Dan Williams — DT — Tennessee
As of this writing, Bill Parcells has Charlie Anderson and Cameron Wake as his 2 rush linebackers. That's not gonna stand. But first things first. The Dolphins NT, Jason Ferguson has been playing NT for Parcells since they were in Pop Warner league. He's old and breaking down, so Parcells needs a stud in the middle. Williams is the pick if he's still here.
13. San Francisco 49ers — Joe Haden — CB — Florida
An easy one. The 49ers had a good rush defense last year, but were brought down by a sieve-like pass defense. Joe Haden walks into the locker room and immediately starts as a CB for the Niners.
14. Seattle Seahawks — C. J. Spiller — RB — Clemson
The Seahawks passed on Spiller earlier in the draft and get the guy they wanted at 14. The consensus top RB in the draft, the Seahawks add a much-needed explosive weapon to their offense. A DE is also a possibility with Patrick Kearney retiring.
15. New York Giants — Jared Odrick — DT/DE — Penn State
Anyone who watched the Giants try to run the ball in the second half of last season knows that...well, they couldn't. They would love to replace David Diehl at LT—he ranked well below average in all O-Line statistics—but Anthony Davis, while immensely talented, has shown no interest in playing football—something Tom Coughlin would not tolerate and wants no part of. They could trade down for OT Charles Brown or OT Roger Saffold. They would have loved Dan Williams or Rolando McClain to shore up the middle of their defense. Sean Weatherspoon is intriquing and remains a possibility, but is a little small to man the middle for Coughlin. In the end versatile DT/DE Jared Odrick, who's a bit of a reach is the perfect fit for the Giants.
16. Tenneesse Titans — Jason-Paul Pierre — DE — South Florida
The Titans need some help on their pass defense, so CBs Kyle Wilson and Kareem Jackson get serious looks here. But with Kyle Vanden Bosh leaving, and Paul just too good a talent to pass up, the Titans get some raw clay to mold into an explosive pass rusher.
17. San Francisco 49ers — Mike Iupati — OG — Idaho
The Niners couldn't run last year, ranked 25th in the league in rushing offense. The problem was their guard play, especially David Baas, who's run-blocking was well below average. Iupati, a quick 330 pound quick on his feet guard could help open holes for Frank Gore.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers — Maurkice Pouncey — C —Florida
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line was deplorable last year. Just awful. And Justin Hartwig was the main culprit, giving up 7 sacks, 3 more than the next center. Combine that with 16 QB pressures and one of the worst run blocking, and its a recipe for the Steelers to run to the stage with Pouncey's—the unanimous top center prospect—name to the stage come Thursday.
19. Atlanta Falcons — Brandon Graham — DE/OLB — Michigan
The Falcons have been looking for a pass-rusher seemingly since Jessie Tuggle was patrolling the MIKE. Jamaal Anderson is a bust-erino and John Abraham is getting older, so the Falcons need someone a young sack artist besides Kroy Biermann to pressure opposing QBs. Graham, who absolutely destroyed opposing O-lineman at the Senior Bowl would fit in well in Atlanta.
20. Houston Texans — Ryan Matthews — RB — Fresno State
The Texans could not run last year. At all. Steve Slaton, after a nice rookie season, reminded everyone that why he's not a lead running back in the NFL. Ryan Matthews is a big back, with little back speed. One of the top cornerbacks is an option here as well.
21. Cincinnati Bengals —Dez Bryant — WR — Oklahoma State
Bryant, who was always a tad overrated anyway, wins this year's slippery slider award and falls into the happy Bengals lap. The Bengals, who have a weird uncontrollable fetish for players with attitude problems, find the perfect match in Dez Bryant. They also happen to need a wide receiver anyway.
22. New England Patriots — Sergio Kindle — OLB — Texas
Honestly, the Patriots trade back. Belichek loves to acquire more picks for the second round, because he finds that the players in the late first round and the second round grade out about the same. The Baltimore Ravens playoff game showed Belichek he needs someone to rush the passer and tackle opposing running backs—something they could not do that game. Kindle could get coached up and attack opposing QBs, something Belichek would appreciate. TE Jermaine Gresham is a possibility as well.
23. Green Bay Packers — Anthony Davis — OT — Rutgers
A lot of people have a cornerback here, and that makes sense. But come on, the Packers need help on the O-line. Heck, Aaron Rodgers was sacked 51 times, and sure, you could say he held onto the ball too long, but wow, 51 times. If that doesn't show that OTs Clifton and Tauscher are old and busted. Davis, has the talent, but it's up to the coaching staff and veterans to make sure the kid trains and plays up to his potential.
24. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Wilson — CB — Boise State
The Eagles are completely gutting the team we knew and are starting over. Not that they will be bad; smart draft choices have them reloading instead of rebuilding. With the trade of Sheldon Brown, the Eagles are a little thin at CB. Kyle Wilson did a good job handling other teams no. 1 receivers in college and should watch and learn and develop into a good CB for Andy Reid.
25. Baltimore Ravens — Jermaine Gresham — TE — Oklahoma
For a team that went to the second round of the playoffs, this is a team that has a lot of needs. The Ravens could go in a number of directions—Terrance Cody to man the middle of their defense, Sean Witherspoon to eventually take over for an aging Ray Lewis. They could go CB Patrick Robinson and shore up a less-than-underwhelming secondary (aside from Ed Reed). In the end, the best value is Gresham, who is a physical freak, and could quickly become Joe Flacco's best friend. If the trade of Jared Gaither—rumored around the web—goes through, a shiny new OT may be warranted here.
26. Arizona Cardinals — Rodger Saffold — OT — Indiana
Another team that made it deep into the playoffs, but has a ton of holes. LB Sean Witherspoon, LB/DE Jerry Hughes, CB Devin McCourty are all options here. But the Cardinals offensive line is just that—offensive. Mike Gandy was mercifully cut and Levi Brown is a disappointment as a 5th overall pick. Saffold handled himself well against opposing Big 10 rushers, and according to statistics, only allowed three sacks and one pressure in his final 440 college pass plays. A sort-of-sleeper.
27. Dallas Cowboys — Taylor Mays — S — USC
Buzz is that the Cowboys like UMass Vladimir Ducasse, but is he ready to walk in and start in September? Not by a long shot. A trade for Jared Gathier is a possibility as is Charles Brown. However, Brown is not a good fit for the Cowboys' scheme and is not a power run blocker. Mays is a physical phenomenon and has the tools; however he needs to be coached up big-time. A wide receiver is an outside shot here, but Mays makes the most sense.
28. San Diego Chargers — Terrance Cody — DT — Alabama
The Chargers could use some help at running back and at corner, but what they need the most is a replacement for Jamal Williams. Without Willaims as the NT, the Chargers were getting sliced in the running game. Unless he eats too many doughnuts and eats his way out of the league, Cody could be a huge pillar in the middle of the Charger defense.
29. New York Jets — Jerry Hughes — OLB — TCU
I can see the Jets trading down—to the Browns and Bills for Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow—the Vikings are in the market for a QB to eventually replace Farve. There are other players who could fill the holes they have down in the 40s of this draft. And since they only have 5 picks, trading down makes sense. Should the Jets remain at 29, Hughes makes a ton of sense. A little short, Hughes however has a fantastic burst and is relentless off the edge. Jayson Taylor or not, the Jets need a lot of help at OLB. Bryan Thomas had fewer than sacks than Jim Leonard did. And Calvin Pace, while better, wasn't making opposing defensive coordinators quake in their Keds. Hughes can help Rex Ryan in the "hitting the opposing QB" department.
30. Minnesota Vikings — Kareem Jackson — CB — Alabama
Tim Tebow is an option—and they are a team that can get a little creative as they don't have too many holes to fill. One of those holes, however is corner. And a shutdown corner schooled by Nick Saban is never a bad choice. Like the Jets, the Vikings may try to trade down to the second round. Should they stay, Jackson makes the most sense. Brian Price is a dark horse possibility.
31. Indianapolis Colts — Charles Brown — OT — USC
The Colts would love it if Brown fell to them. A nice fit for their system, Brown could come in and protect Peyton, and maybe even help the Colts stop getting stuffed in the opponents red zone.
32. New Orleans Saints — Sean Witherspoon — OLB — Missouri
Even thought they won the Super Bowl, the Saints could use some help on their defense. Witherspoon, the best defensive player left on the board could come in and give Scott Shanle some competition for the OLB spot.
That's it. Write back and let me know what you think.